When Victor Wembanyama walked onto the court at the American Airlines Center on 2025-26 NBA season openerDallas, Texas, the atmosphere was electric but the odds favored the home side. The Dallas Mavericks entered as three‑point favorites, yet the San Antonio Spurs ripped the win from under them, 125‑92, sending the betting world into a scramble.
Historical context: Southwest rivals at a crossroads
The Mavericks closed the 2024‑25 campaign with a 39‑43 record, finishing third in the Southwest Division and stumbling in a play‑in game after a surprise run to the Finals the year before. Dallas went into the off‑season with a revamped roster, most notably adding former No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg. Meanwhile, the Spurs had missed the playoffs for five straight seasons, their last appearance dating back to 2018‑19. The arrival of Victor Wembanyama, the 7‑foot‑4 French phenom, has been billed as the franchise’s turning point.
Game details: How the underdogs took control
Tip‑off was scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET. After a tight first quarter (Dallas 29, San Antonio 28), the Spurs seized a fleeting lead at 32‑31 with 11:07 left in the second quarter. That moment sparked a 20‑5 run that stretched to 82‑63 midway through the third, a stretch that included Wembanyama’s 31‑point night (11‑17 FG, 1‑2 3P, 8‑9 FT) and a double‑double of 15 rebounds.
The final box score reads: San Antonio Spurs 125 (28‑32‑33‑32), Dallas Mavericks 92 (29‑22‑21‑20). Total points 217 fell short of the pre‑game over/under of 224.5, rewarding every bettor who took the "under".
Betting analysis: Models versus the market
Leading predictive engines weren’t shy about favoring Dallas. SportsLine ran 10,000 simulations, projecting a 63 % win probability for the Mavericks and a final line of 114‑110. CBS Sports echoed that sentiment in its October 22 preview. The moneyline listed Dallas at –166 and San Antonio at +142 on the Action Network, while Leans.AI showed an opening spread of SA +2.5, DAL ‑2.5.
Public betting was almost split—53 % on Dallas, 47 % on San Antonio—but the underdog moneyline of +137 (a $100 wager netting $237) turned into a tidy profit for anyone who believed the Spurs could pull an upset.
Player performances beyond Wembanyama
While Victor stole the headlines, other pieces clicked. Harrison Barnes shot 48.3 % from the field and 40.3 % from three‑point range, ranking in the 75th and 92nd percentiles respectively. De'Aaron Fox missed the game with a hamstring strain, and Kyrie Irving sat out on the Mavericks’ side with a lingering knee issue. Their absences forced both coaches to lean heavily on younger talent, giving Flagg a chance to taste NBA action in front of a hostile Dallas crowd.
Implications and next steps
The win nudged the Spurs to 1‑0, snapping a five‑year playoff drought and sending a loud message across the league: Wembanyama is more than a novelty; he’s a game‑changer. For Dallas, the loss drops them to 0‑1 and raises questions about how quickly the new pieces can gel. The Mavericks’ spread‑covering record sits at 0‑1 in their last five games, hinting at early-season volatility.
Looking ahead, the Southwest Division clash will likely replay in March when the two teams vie for a playoff berth. Analysts will watch whether the Spurs can sustain their offensive aggression—ranked sixth for three‑point attempts last season—while the Mavericks must find a rhythm without Irving.
Key facts
- Final score: Spurs 125, Mavericks 92
- Wembanyama: 31 points, 15 rebounds
- Over/Under: 224.5 (under hit 217)
- Moneyline odds: Spurs +137, Mavericks -166
- Game date & venue: October 22, 2025, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this upset affect Dallas' playoff hopes?
Starting 0‑1 puts pressure on the Mavericks to win early games to stay in the race for a top‑four seed in the Southwest. A loss against a lower‑ranked opponent also highlights defensive lapses that opponents will try to exploit later in the season.
What does Victor Wembanyama’s performance mean for the Spurs?
Dropping 31 points and 15 rebounds in a season‑opening blowout confirms Wembanyama’s status as the league’s most dominant interior force. It also validates the Spurs’ strategy of building around his unique skill set, potentially accelerating their return to postseason contention.
Why did the total points fall under the projected over/under?
The Spurs executed a slow‑burn offense early, forcing the Mavericks into forced shots. Defensive intensity in the second half, combined with Dallas missing key scorers Irving and Fox, led to fewer possessions and a final tally 7.5 points shy of the 224.5 line.
Which betting trends were most accurate in predicting this outcome?
The under‑bet performed best, as the total fell 7.5 points below the line. Additionally, the Spurs’ historical ATS record of covering the spread roughly 48 % of the time proved prescient; they not only covered the spread but blew it out of the water.
What is next for both teams after this opener?
The Spurs travel to San Francisco next week to test their defense against the Warriors, while the Mavericks head to Phoenix to face the Suns. Both games will be critical for adjusting early‑season strategies and gauging how new roster pieces integrate.
